Головна Market News Ukraine may beat a ten-year barley export record

Ukraine may beat a ten-year barley export record

Traditionally, most of the Ukrainian barley export volume leaves the country during the first half of the season and the MY 2016/17 was no exception. Thus, according to the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine, in July-December of the current marketing year Ukraine exported 4.3 MMT of barley. Considering that the annual export of this grain, according to the forecast of “ProAgro”, will equal 5 MMT, 85% of all shipments have already been made. Because of this we can now talk about some of the features of current export campaign.

First of all, it should be noted that barley exports volume of this season exceed last year”s figures – thus, in the first half of MY 2015/16 just over 3.9 MMT of grain was delivered abroad, i.e, we are now at the point of 9,5% increase. This became possible due to the growth in gross yield of barley as well as later start of maize exports. As a consequence, logistics and transshipment infrastructure was mainly occupied by the early grain.

Although the main directions of barley exports in the current season are the same, some changes in the volumes still occur. For example, while Saudi Arabia is the main buyer of Ukrainian grain in the first five months of MY 2016/17, it”s share dropped to 40.5% of total shipments versus 54.7% in the same period of the last season. At the same time China, which was the second biggest importer (July-November MY 2015/16) in the list of importing countries, is now moved to the third position and its share of purchases decreased from 18.4% to 7.5%. However, Libya, which is the third largest buyer of Ukrainian barley, has increased its supplies. During the same period Libya”s purchase volumes increased more than two times and its share in exports has grown from 9.3% to 18.1%.

In view of barley exports reduction to China, State Food and Grain Corporation of Ukraine (SFGCU), which is the largest state grain operator and leading provider of Ukrainian grain to the Chinese market has lost its former position in the ranking of grain exporters.

According to “ProAgro”,”Nibulon” has outperformed SFGCU in terms of barley shipments in respect that for the first five months it shipped abroad 14.5% more barley than in the last year. At the same time, “Granum Invest” remained the main exporter of barley from Ukraine, which accounted for 16% of all shipments during the last July-November period.

Further export dynamics of Ukrainian barley will depend on the demand of overseas buyers as well as to the world prices for grain. Prices are currently at multi-year lows, which will positively contribute to the overall exports. It is quite possible that by the end of the season shipments will exceed the projected today”s volume, furthermore 5 MMT will be definitely a new record of the Ukrainian barley export volumes over the last decade.

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