In the updated report Grains: World Markets and Trade, USDA analysts lowered the global wheat export estimate for the March by 0.64 MMT to 179.58 MMT due to negative adjustments in the expected shipments volumes from Australia, Canada, Russia and others. At the same time, the export of wheat from Ukraine, in the opinion of specialists of the ministry, on the contrary expects an increase to 17.3 MMT (+ 0.8 MMT) due to an increase in supplies to India.
In addition, according to the results of the season, a significant increase in the volume of export shipments from the EU countries is expected (+1.0 MMT to 26.5 MMT), although the indicator of MY 2016/17 remains much lower than the result of the previous season (34.69 MMT).
The updated data shows a certain increase in the expected world wheat production (+0.3 MMT to 751.36 MMT), which is accompanied by negative adjustments of domestic consumption and world trade of this crop.
As a result, the expected volume of transitional reserves for the 2016/17 season was raised to 252.26 MMT (+2.32 MMT compared to the previous estimate and +10.52 MMT compared to MY 2015/16).
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Wheat, world supply and demand balance, mln. t |
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|
|
2014/15 |
2015/16 |
2016/17 |
2016/17 |
|
Production |
728,069 |
735,229 |
751,074 |
751,357 |
|
Export, incl.: |
161,831 |
172,199 |
180,122 |
179,581 |
|
Australia |
16,575 |
15,782 |
24,000 |
23,000 |
|
Canada |
24,883 |
22,136 |
20,500 |
20,000 |
|
the EU |
35,455 |
34,686 |
25,500 |
26,500 |
|
Russia |
22,800 |
25,543 |
28,500 |
28,000 |
|
Turkey |
4,134 |
5,609 |
5,800 |
6,000 |
|
Ukraine |
11,269 |
17,431 |
16,500 |
17,300 |
|
Import |
161,831 |
172,199 |
180,122 |
179,581 |
|
Domestic consumption |
705,381 |
711,070 |
741,417 |
740,836 |
|
Transitional stocks |
217,582 |
241,741 |
249,944 |
252,262 |
|
Data – USDA, visuals – ProAgro |
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According to ProAgro, the total wheat production in Ukraine in MY 2016/17 was estimated at 26.53 MMT – down 1.8% from the previous season. Expected for the end of the season, the total value of exports of such product from Ukraine is expected to be 14.52 MMT, which is 12% lower than the same indicator of the previous marketing year.
