In 2017, the grain harvest in Russia may decrease by 6.5% compared to the record a year ago and amount to 112.8 MMT. Export potential will be above 41 MMT.
It has been reported by ProAgro with a reference to the general director of ProZerno, Vladimir Petrichenko.
In early April, head of the Ministry of Agriculture of the Russian Federation, Alexander Tkachev, said that he expects a grain harvest in 2017 of at least 110 MMT. The updated state program for the development of the agro-industrial complex for 2013-2020 suggests that this year the gross harvest of grain and leguminous crops in all categories will amount to 104 MMT.
“Based on the considerations of the sowing areas, the moisture content of the main grain producing in the regions, we conclude that we are going to harvest 112-113 MMT or 112.8 MMT if more precisely”. Compared to what it was last year, this is a slight decline but it must be borne in mind that this is the second harvest after last year”s record”, – Petrichenko said.
He specified that the harvest of wheat is expected at the level of 67.1 MMT (of which 47 MMT of winter wheat (8.5% decrease); barley harvest – 17.3 MMT (decrease by 3.6%); rye – 2, 5 MMT (decrease by 1.2%); buckwheat – about 1 MMT; corn – 14.9 MMT (decrease of 2.4%).
“I would say that this growth showed by corn, based on the fact that I am questioning the offical figure and I think that the real harvest in 2016 is seen somewhere between 14.2-14.5 MMT”, – he said.
“With such a crop harvest, I do not think that there will be a strong increase in domestic consumption but rather a repeat of the last year”s result of 75 MMT”. The export potential will be probably higher than 41 MMT. The carryover stocks will drop only to 19 MMT (from 22.5), which is still a significant figure and we need to export more”, – the expert said.
Petrichenko assumes that the world wheat crop in 2017 will be significantly lower than the last year”s – 732 MMT against 751 MMT respectively.
“The decline is visible primarily in the USA, where the sown areas are one of the lowest in many years and they are actively cutting it in favor of soybeans. There will be a decrease in Russia as well as decrease in Ukraine and Kazakhstan. And, most importantly, it”s a certain reduction in the production processes in Australia, where last year”s crazy harvest was 35 MMT of wheat, with an average of 25 MMT”, – he explained.
