Adjustments have been made to the latest USDA Oilseeds: World Market and Trade, forecasting an increase in the world soybean production volumes in MY 2016/17 up to 340.79 MMT (against 336.62 MMT in the previous report). The main reason for the increase in the cumulative assessment was based on the info regarding the revision of the forecasted yield of oilseeds in Brazil up to 108 MMT (against 104.0 MMT previously).
According to USDA analysts, the increase in soybean harvests in Brazil will lead to an increase in the export of oilseeds from the country by 1.5 MMT to 61.0 MMT. In addition, the volume of expected stocks of soybean by the end of the season is increased to 20.8 MMT against 19.38 MMT in the previous estimate. The global volume of such reserves is expected at 82.82 MMT against 80.38 MMT in the previous estimate (80.38 MMT in total in the last season).
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Soy: world supply and demand balance, MMT |
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2014/15 |
2015/16 |
2016/17 |
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Previous estimate |
Actual estimate |
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Production |
319,60 |
312,81 |
336,62 |
340,79 |
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Import |
124,36 |
133,34 |
137,43 |
138,25 |
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Export |
126,22 |
132,13 |
140,11 |
141,11 |
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Processing |
264,41 |
276,26 |
290,74 |
291,55 |
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Stocks |
77,49 |
76,59 |
80,38 |
82,82 |
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Data – USDA, visuals – ProAgro |
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The publication of the updated USDA forecast caused a decline in soybean quotes. At CBOT, May futures for the delivery of soybeans in the period from 10.03.2017 to 14.03.2017 decreased to 9.99 ¢/B from 10.06 ¢/B. Contracts for the July deliveries by the evening of March 14, 2017 traded at the level of 10.09 ¢/B against 10.16 ¢/B the day after the release of the new report.
