Головна Analytics Grain market reviews Grain and processed products market (08.11.21 – 12.11.21)

Grain and processed products market (08.11.21 – 12.11.21)

Photo: Peterson Farms Seed

The USDA report supported the price increase on the wheat market, it was also encouraged by Russia’s recently announced plans to limit grain exports from 2022. The upward trend in wheat in turn supported corn prices as well.

  • According to the Ministry of Agrarian Policy, as of November 11, 73.4 million tons of grain were harvested in Ukraine from 14.5 million hectares (the average yield is 50.8 c/ha). The harvesting of buckwheat is almost completed – 110 thousand tons were harvested from 83.3 thousand hectares (99%) (with a yield of 3.2 c/ha). 184.7 thousand tons of millet were harvested from 77.7 thousand hectares (100%) (with the yield 23.8 c/ha). Also, out of 4 million hectares (73%), 28.1 million tons of corn were harvested with the current average yield of 70.5 centners/ha;
  • According to the State Customs Service, as of November 12, 21.491 million tons of grain and leguminous crops were exported from Ukraine since the beginning of 2021/22 MY, which is 3.015 million more than on the same date last season. Wheat supplies amounted to 13.110 million tons (+1.887 million tons), barley – 4.625 million tons (+1.148 million tons), rye – 71.5 thousand tons (+69.8 thousand tons), corn – 3.480 million tons (+52 thousand tons). In addition, 46.1 thousand tons of grain flour (including 45.6 thousand tons of wheat) were exported abroad, which is 18.6 thousand tons less than the corresponding figure for the previous season;
  • As of November 8, 7.3 million hectares were sown with winter crops in Ukraine, which is 94% of the forecast. The main part of the sown area was wheat – 6.2 million hectares (94%), winter barley was sown on 924 thousand hectares (91%), winter rye – on 158 thousand hectares (99%);
  • Russia plans to introduce in the first half of 2022 a quota for the export of grain, including wheat. The size of the quota will be determined at the end of the year, taking into account the revised volume of the harvest, as well as the rate of export. In addition, if world prices for wheat rise to $ 400 per ton or more, the formula for calculating the floating export duty may be revised upward.

Last week, another report from the US Department of Agriculture was released on updated forecasts of the global balance of major cereals for 2021/22 MY. In particular, USDA experts once again lowered estimates of global production (by 590 thousand tons – to 775.28 million tons) and final stocks of wheat. As for Ukraine, the forecast for wheat exports was increased by 0.5 million to 24 million tons. The USDA report supported a further rise in wheat prices, which was also helped by Russia’s plans to limit its exports from 2022.

On the contrary, the estimate for corn has been increased: global production is expected at the level of 1,204.62 million tons, 6.4 million more than was expected in October. For Ukraine, forecast indicators for corn remained unchanged. Prices at CBOT in Chicago for December futures on soft red wheat, which were at the level of 282.19 $/ton last Monday, November 8, on the last working day of the week increased to 300.2 $/ton. On EURONEXT in Paris, the price of the December wheat contract also increased significantly during the week – from 283.75 €/ton on Monday to 297.25 €/ton on Friday.

December corn futures at CBOT also rose in price from 217.08 $/ton to 227.23 $/ton during the last week. On EURONEXT the price of corn contracts with execution in January, which stood at 234.75 €/t on Monday, rose to 243.75 €/t on Friday.

z-15.11-eng