Головна Analytics Grain market reviews Grain and processed products market (15.11.21 – 19.11.21)

Grain and processed products market (15.11.21 – 19.11.21)

Last week analysts at the International Grains Council lowered their forecast for global wheat production in 2021/22 MY by 4 million – to 777 million tons. In the updated forecast they reduced the forecast for world final reserves by 2 million – to 274 million tons. For corn, the forecast for world production was increased by 2 million to 1.212 billion tons as the estimate for US production was raised to 382.6 million tons. The forecast for world corn final reserves was also raised by 2 million to 287 million tons.

  • In the first ten days of November meteorological conditions were satisfactory for the rooting and initial development of winter crops. In the southern, central and eastern regions, where effective precipitation took place, the conditions of soil moisture improved, which, combined with warm weather, contributed to the acceleration of the growth of winter crops;
  • According to the Ministry of Agrarian Policy, as of November 18, Ukraine harvested 76.7 million tons of grain from 14.9 million hectares with an average yield of 51.6 c/ha. The harvesting of buckwheat and millet has been completed – 110.7 thousand tons and 184.7 thousand tons have been harvested respectively. Corn is being harvested at the moment, which has already been threshed from 4.4 million hectares, which is 80% of the projected harvesting area. 31.8 million tons of grain were harvested with an average yield of 72.2 c/ha;
  • According to the State Customs Service, as of November 17, 22.5 million tons of grain and leguminous crops were exported from Ukraine from the beginning of 2021/22 MY, which is 3.3 million tons more than on the same date last season. Wheat supplies amounted to 13.479 million tons (+2.134 million tons), barley – 4.778 million tons (+1.187 million tons), rye – 75.8 thousand tons (+74.1 thousand tons), corn – 3.941 million tons (+ 62 thousand tons). In addition, 46.9 thousand tons of grain flour (including 46.3 thousand tons of wheat) were exported abroad, which is 18.9 thousand tons less than the corresponding figure for the previous season;
  • Ukraine continues to increase grain exports and intends to supply more than 60 million tons of grain to foreign markets in 2021/22 MY; According to the Ministry of Agriculture of the Russian Federation, the duty on the export of Russian wheat on November 24-30 will increase from the previous 77.1 to 78.3 $/ton, on the corn export – it will decrease from 62.9 to 53.6 $/ton, on the export of barley – will decrease from 66 to 65.3 $/ton;
  • Stratégie Grains has lowered its forecast for wheat exports from the EU in 2021/22 MY by 1.6 million tons compared to the previous estimate – to 30.4 million tons, due to high prices for it.
  • The Turkish Grain Agency (TMO) at a tender on November 16 contracted 300 thousand tons of corn, mainly of Ukrainian origin, at a price of 310.45-317.9 $/ton C&F with supply on December 20-January 20;
  • The state agency of Algeria OAIC contracted up to 800 thousand tons of milling wheat originating from Russia, Argentina, Germany and Poland at a price of 382.5-384 $/ton CIF with supply from December 16 to January 31;
  • Egypt’s state agency GASC purchased 60,000 tons of Romanian milling wheat at a tender on November 17 at a minimum price of 371.97 $/ton C&F with supplies during January 1-15;
  • The Turkish Grain Agency (TMO) announced a tender on November 23 for the purchase of 320 thousand tons of feed barley with supply during January 2-28;
  • The Turkish Grain Agency (TMO) announced a tender on November 25 for the purchase of 385 thousand tons of milling wheat of arbitrary origin with supply during January 10-31.

Last week an upward price trend reigned on the domestic market for major grain crops in Ukraine, driven by strong demand from traders and exporters amid a decrease in supply from producers. Even corn, the harvest of which is nearing the finish line, has risen in price in ports amid general uncertainty and problems with its delivery from domestic bases.

Thus, according to monitoring data from ProAgro Group, prices for milling wheat at FOB/deep-water ports of the Black Sea last week crossed the maximum of 340 $/ton, adding on average almost 10 $/ton over the week. This rise in price, as well as the lack of supply, became the main reasons for the next rise in prices for grain of 2-3 classes by an average of 100 UAH/ton on the EXW basis and by 150 UAH/ton on the CPT port. Feed wheat has risen in price slightly less – on average by 50 UAH/ton at grain elevators and by 100 UAH/ton at ports.

Barley also went up in price along with wheat due to a reduction in stocks at producers and a shortage of supply of consignments. In ports, grain added in price at once 200 UAH/ton, which was also due to an increase in export prices – an average of 6 $/ton FOB. On the basis of elevators, barley has risen in price by an average of 50 UAH/ton during the week.

An ambiguous situation has developed in the corn market. On the one hand, the ongoing harvesting campaign and sufficient supply from producers allowed buyers to reduce purchase prices at primary elevators by 100 UAH/ton. However, the aggravation of problems with the delivery of grain to ports due to problems on the railway and an increase in the cost of road transportation led to an increase in the cost of demand for corn on the basis of CPT port by 100 UAH/ton. This was also driven by the rise in prices on export during the week by an average of 4 $/ton.

Domestic processors last week revised purchase prices only for corn, which on the basis of the CPT enterprise fell by an average of 100 UAH/ton.


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