Rainy weather in Australia and a lack of rainfall in North America were the main weather factors that influenced global prices for major crops during the past week. Prolonged rains slowed harvests and reduced the protein content of Australian wheat, and farmers stopped sales to await final data on crop quality. In turn, dry weather in the United States worsens the condition of winter crops, which is why there is growing concern about the fate of the future grain harvest. This led to a new wave of appreciation in the wheat market, which also supported corn prices amid increased processing for bioethanol in the United States.
- In the second decade of November, in all regions, where the average temperatures were below + 5°С, the active growth process of winter grain crops stopped. The condition of the plants remains mostly satisfactory. In some areas of the central and eastern regions, due to drought, thinning of winter barley crops was noted;
- According to the Ministry of Agrarian Policy, as of November 25, 2021, 79.7 million tons of grain were harvested in Ukraine from 15.2 million hectares with an average yield of 52.5 c/ha. The harvesting of buckwheat and millet has been completed – 110 thousand tons and 191 thousand tons have been harvested, respectively. Now corn is being harvested (from 4.8 million hectares, which is 87% of the projected harvested area). 35.1 million tons of seeds were harvested with an average yield of 73.3 c/ha;
- According to the State Customs Service, as of November 26, 24.75 million tons of grain and leguminous crops were exported from Ukraine since the beginning of 2021/22 MY, which is 3.7 million tons more than on the same date last season. Wheat supplies amounted to 14.342 million tons (+2.514 million tons), barley – 4.882 million tons (+1.180 million tons), rye – 77.2 thousand tons (+75.5 thousand tons), corn – 5.237 million tons (+ 42 thousand tons). In addition, 50.3 thousand tons of flour of grain crops (including 49.7 thousand tons of wheat) were delivered abroad;
- According to the Ministry of Agriculture of the Russian Federation, the duty on the export of Russian grain for the period of December 1-7 will increase: for wheat supplies – from the previous $78.3 to $80.8 /ton, for barley supplies – from $65.3 to $68.3 /ton , for corn supplies – from $53.6 to $54.3 /ton;
- It is expected that in December the Ministry of Agriculture of the Russian Federation will present options for a quota for the export of grain, in particular wheat, which will be introduced from January 1, 2022. This year, the quota for the export of Russian grain was in effect from February 15 to June 30, its volume amounted to 17.5 million tons;
- According to monitoring data from FranceAgriMer, maize harvesting is nearing completion in France – 91% of the planned area was threshed in the country as of November 15 (+ 9% per week). At the same time, the current rate of harvesting is still inferior to last year’s – then its harvest was carried out on 99% of the planned area;
- According to the USDA weekly report, the United States harvested 95% of its corn crop as of Nov 22, 4% up from last year’s figures. During the week of November 14-21, 4% of the corn area was threshed;
- The November MARS report notes that the absence of heavy rainfall during the fall in most of Europe provided conditions for the intensification of the rate of winter crops sowing, due to which the sowing was completed at the optimal time in most countries;
- During the tenders held, the Turkish State Agency for the Procurement of Food TMO purchased 370 thousand tons of barley at a price of 349.7-354.8 $/ton C&F, as well as 385 thousand tons of wheat at a price of 358.8-394.9 $/ton C&F with deliveries in January 2022;
- A group of importers from the Philippines purchased 100,000 tons of feed wheat (probably Australian) at a price of 340-350 $/ton C&F with delivery in January-June 2022.
In Ukraine, domestic markets of wheat, corn and barley last week were marked by a rapid rise in prices, which was facilitated by the strengthening of the global conjuncture of these crops, a decrease in supply, problems with grain delivery to ports, as well as the devaluation of the national currency.
Wheat prices grew at the fastest pace. Thus, according to the monitoring data of ProAgro Group, prices for milling wheat in the Black Sea ports last week renewed the record of the last season and crossed the mark of 10,000 UAH per ton, having added an average of 550 UAH per week.
Feed wheat on the basis of CPT port has risen in price slightly less – by 500 UAH/ton. At the same time, FOB export prices added only a “modest” 2 $/ton over the week. The main contribution to the rise in prices was made by internal factors – the general reduction in the supply of wheat and the depreciation of the national currency, only thanks to which the hryvnia prices for it increased by about 150 UAH/ton.
As a result of a decrease in the inventories of producers and a shortage of supply for consignments, barley has also risen in price. On the basis of elevators, its price during the week added an average of 250 UAH/ton, in ports – 200 UAH/ton. At the same time, barley added more among the main crops in the export direction – its FOB price increased by 5 $/ton.
In contrast to wheat and barley, the export price of corn fell last week. But this did not prevent its rise in price on the EXW and CPT port bases, where prices added on average 350 UAH/ton and 300 UAH/ton, respectively. Despite the sufficient supply of corn from producers, problems with its delivery to ports continue to worsen, and this is forcing traders and exporters to raise prices. Domestic processors also increased purchasing prices for major crops last week, but slightly less than traders.
So, wheat on the basis of the CPT enterprise has risen in price by 250 UAH/ton. At the same time, prices for processed products – flour and bran – last week increased by 400 UAH/ton and 200 UAH/ton, respectively, and the main reason for this is the rise in prices for raw materials.
z-29.11-eng
