Головна Analytics Grain market reviews Grain and processed products market (29.11.21 – 3.12.21)

Grain and processed products market (29.11.21 – 3.12.21)

Last week, FAO published its December report, in which it reduced the forecast for world grain production in 2021/22 MY by 2.1 million – to 2.791 billion tons, wich, however, still exceeds last year’s figure by 0.7% or 19.2 million tons and can become a record. In particular, the production of feed grains will increase by 1.4% compared to the previous season, to 1.503 billion tons, and wheat production – by 1%, to 769.6 million tons.

  • According to the State Customs Service, as of December 3, 25.8 million tons of grain and leguminous crops were exported from Ukraine from the beginning of 2021/22 MY, which is 3.7 million tons more than on the same date last season.
  • Wheat supplies amounted to 14.575 million tons (+2.554 million tons), barley – 4.965 million tons (+1.260 million tons), rye – 82.6 thousand tons (+80.9 thousand tons), corn – 5.934 million tons (- 94 thousand tons). In addition, 52.9 thousand tons of grain flour (including 51.1 thousand tons of wheat flour) were exported abroad, which is 17.6 thousand tons less than the corresponding figure for the previous season;
  • According to the Ministry of Agriculture of the Russian Federation, duties on export supplies of Russian wheat from December 8 will increase from the previous 80.8 to 84.9 $/ton, on barley supplies – will also increase from 68.3 to 75.1 $/ton, and on corn supplies – will not change, remaining at the level of 54.3 $/ton. The established duties will be valid until December 14 inclusive;
  • The Ministry of Agriculture of the Russian Federation, presumably, has decided on the size of the grain export quota in the second half of the season. According to Kommersant, the export of wheat outside the EAEU may be limited to 9 million tons, corn, barley and rye – to 5 million tons;
  • As of November 28, the EU exported 12.1 million tons of wheat, 12% up from last year’s pace. The forecast for wheat exports for this season was also increased compared to the previous one by 12% – up to 36.5 million tons;
  • ABARES analysts predict that 34.4 million tons of wheat will be harvested in Australia in 2021/22 MY, which will be a new record value and 3% more than in the previous season;
  • At the tender on November 29, the Egyptian GASC purchased 600 thousand tons of milling wheat – 240 thousand tons of Romanian and Russian, as well as 120 thousand tons of Ukrainian at an average price of 352.37 $/ton FOB or 378.33 $/ton C&F, which is for 5.4 $/t FOB and 6.36 $/t C&F exceeds the purchase price of the previous tender on November 17;
  • The Tunisian State Food Procurement Agency ODC has contracted at a tender on December 2, 100 thousand tons of soft wheat in four consignments of 25 thousand tons each at a price of 382-387.68 $/ton C&F for delivery in January-March 2022;
  • The Tunisian State Food Procurement Agency ODC has contracted at a tender on December 2, 100 thousand tons of barley in four consignments of 25 thousand tons each at a price of 353.97-355.97 $/ton C&F with deliveries in January-March 2022;
  • The Bangladesh State Food Procurement Agency has announced an international tender for the purchase of 50,000 tons of milling wheat of arbitrary origin with supply during 40 days after the signing of the contract. Propositions are accepted until December 8;
  • Saudi Arabia’s state food procurement agency SAGO has announced a tender for the import of 535,000 tons of wheat with delivery in May-July 2022.

The beginning of December on the domestic wheat and corn market was marked by a sharp reversal in price dynamics, which was due to the reduction in prices for these crops on world trading floors. The only crop remaining in the growing trend was barley.

Feed wheat lost the most in price last week. According to monitoring data from ProAgro Group, the average price at primary elevators decreased by 250 UAH/ton, and slightly less in ports – by 100 UAH/ton. At the same time, food wheat lost an average of 150 UAH/ton on EXW, and 50 UAH/ton on CPT port. At the same time, export prices for wheat with 12.5% ​​protein content on FOB for the week fell by an average of 7 $/ton, while contracts for feed wheat remained at the same price.

Domestic corn prices also fell last week: on the EXW basis, it lost an average of 150 UAH/ton, and on the CPT port – even more, 200 UAH/ton. The reduction in price was supported by a large supply of corn from producers, who have mostly completed the harvest campaign. Despite the fact that the supply of corn is also sufficient in other exporting countries of the Black Sea region, Ukrainian corn fell in price on FOB/deep-sea ports by only 3 $/ton.

As a result of a decrease in producers’ stocks and a shortage of supply for consignments, barley has once again risen in price. On the basis of elevators and in ports, the price for it increased by an average of 50 UAH/ton. At the same time, barley also added in price in the export direction, on FOB during the week, having risen in price by 7 $/ton.

Domestic processors changed prices last week in unison with traders and exporters. Thus, milling wheat on the basis of the CPT enterprise fell in price by 50 UAH/ton, feed wheat – by 100 UAH/ton, corn – by 200 UAH/ton, while barley rose in price by 50 UAH/ton. At the same time, prices for wheat flour last week once again increased by 200 UAH/ton, although prices for bran remained in the previous range.


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