In the December balance sheet, USDA experts lowered the forecast for world oilseed production in 2021/22 MY by 0.45 million to 627.58 million tons (603.57 million tons in 2020/21 MY) as a result of a decrease in the soybean crop in China and Paraguay and rapeseed crop in Canada. The current decline will be partially offset by an increase in rapeseed crops in Australia and sunflower crops in Ukraine and Russia.
- According to the Institute of Agrarian Economics, in the first 9 months of 2021, China became the largest buyer of Ukrainian agricultural products. The total volume of trade in agricultural products between Ukraine and Asian countries increased by 20%;
- S&P Global Platts reports that industry analysts and traders estimate Malaysia’s palm oil stocks at the end of November stood at 1.78 million tons, down 3.2% from the previous month (1.83 million tons). Active exports for the month (+11%) led to a decrease in palm oil reserves in the country, while production of the product decreased by 1%;
- According to the official data of the State Information Center of China, in 2021/22 MY the volume of soybean processing in the country will increase by 1.9% or by 1.85 million to 101 million tons, which is 3 million more than the USDA forecast for December. The processing volume at the level of 1.6 million tons of soybeans of local and 99.4 million of imported origin will be provided for industrial use.
- Canada analysts expect that the canola and soybean harvest in the country in 2021/22 MY will amount to 12.6 million and 6.3 million tons respectively, (in the previous season, 19.5 million tons of canola and 6.4 million of soybeans were harvested).
According to our price monitoring data, during the reporting period, mainly positive price adjustments were recorded on the domestic markets for key oilseeds and their derivatives.
In the sunflower segment during the reporting week, prices remained mostly stable. On the EXW basis, sunflower seeds were traded in the range of 19000-19400 UAH/t, while on the basis of CPT enterprise – 19200-19600 UAH/t. Sunflower oil of Ukrainian production on the FOB basis in the Black Sea ports continued to be traded in the range of 1360-1380 $/t at the end of the week.
In a recent report, analysts from the US Ministry of Agriculture increased their estimate of the average yield of sunflower in Ukraine in 2021 compared to the November report from 2.43 to 2.54 t/ha (2.5 t/ha according to the estimates of the Ukrainian MA).
We also increased the assessment of the harvested areas (to 6.9 million hectares), as a result of which the production forecast was increased by 0.5 million tons to a record 17.5 million tons.
The forecast for sunflower exports from Ukraine was left at 350 thousand tons, although only 34 thousand tons were exported during September-November, compared to 115 thousand tons during the corresponding period in 2020.
Domestic soybean prices continued to rise last week, reversing a long period of price declines. On the EXW basis, soybeans were traded in the range of 15400-15800 UAH/t (+1.3%). On CPT port terms, they occupied the price range of 16200-16600 UAH/t (+1.2%).
In the rapeseed segment, prices last week were mostly stable, holding high positions on both domestic and export bases. On FOB terms, they fluctuated in the range of 760-775 $/t.
o-13.12-eng
