Last week analysts of USDA reduced forecast of world production of oilseeds in 2021/22 MY by 0,2 mln to 628,03 mln tons (against 603,32 mln in 2020/21 MY). The main factor of such adjustments is negative reassessment of soybean crop in the USA (-1.1 mln tons).
The forecast of world volumes of oilseeds processing in season 2021/22 was increased by 1 million tons to 527.2 million tons (against 509.33 million in 2020/21 MY). As a consequence, the estimate of oilseed stocks at the end of 2021/22 MY was reduced by 1.3 million to 115.2 million tons.
- As S&P Global Platts reports, palm oil reserves in Malaysia rose by 4.4% month-on-month to 1.834 million tons at the end of October amid higher-than-expected production and lower exports. The volume of palm oil production in the country reaches 1.73 million tons as of October this year;
- According to “Ukroliyaprom», 118 plants work in Ukraine with total processing capacity 23 million tons. The profitability of sunflower seed production in 2020 was 39.4% against 23.5% in 2019 (in 2018 – 32.5%, in 2017 – 41.3%, in 2016 – 63.0%);
- Egypt’s state agency GASC reported on holding a tender for the import of 30 thousand tons of soybean and 10 thousand tons of sunflower oil. Supply should be executed between January 10-30, 2022. The closing of the tender is scheduled for November 16;
- According to expert estimates of Australian federation of oilseeds, it is expected that the cost of Australian rapeseed in 2020/21 MY will increase by 43% over the previous year. Rapeseed prices remained high due to the drought in Canada, strong industry demand for biodiesel in the U.S. and supply shortages in Europe.
In the latest report of USDA agency raised the forecast of the world sunflower harvest in 2021/22 MY from 55.86 million to 56 million tons. USDA experts also slightly overestimated the global oil production forecast – from 21.79 to 21.8 million tons. The world production of sunflower grist they estimate at the level of 23.23 million tons. Assessment of sunflower yield in Ukraine in 2021/22 MY remained at 17 million tons. The forecast for the production of soybean grist (6.83 million tons) and sunflower oil (7.12 million tons) remained unchanged.
As a whole analysts of USDA reduced forecast of production of world oilseeds in 2021/22 MY on 0,2 mln. tons to 628,03 mln. tons (against 603,32 mln. in 2020/21 MY). The main factor of such adjustments is negative overestimation of soybean crop in the USA (-1.1 mln tons).
The forecast of world volumes of oilseeds processing in season 2021/22 was increased by 1 million tons to 527.2 million tons (against 509.33 million in 2020/21 MY). As a consequence, the estimate of oilseed stocks at the end of 2021/22 MY was reduced by 1.3 million to 115.2 million tons.
According to our price monitoring data, during the reporting period in the domestic markets of key oilseeds and their products, multidirectional price adjustments were recorded. In the sunflower segment during the reporting week, prices continued the upward trend of the previous period with cautious growth. On the basis of EXW sunflower seeds were traded in the range of UAH 18500-18900 / t (+0.5%), while the terms of CPT enterprise in the range of UAH 18800-19100 / t (+0.5%).
Ukrainian sunflower oil retains high positions on the export bases – on the FOB basis in the Black Sea ports by the end of the week it was traded in the range of 410-1430 $ / t. One of the drivers of price growth is negative revaluation of soybean gross output in the USA, which was mentioned above, as well as growing expectations on the volumes of soybean import by India in 2021/22 MY.
o-15.11-eng
