- On February 16, the Egyptian government agency GASC held an international tender for the purchase of vegetable oils. 34.5 thousand tons of vegetable oils were purchased for delivery during April 5-25, including 5.5 thousand sunflower oil (Aston, $1463/t CNF), 11 thousand sunflower oil (Agric SA, 1463 $/t CNF), 12 thousand sunflower oil (Vittera, 1463 $/t CNF); 6 thousand soybean oil (Belluno, $1567/t CNF);
- According to customs statistics, in September-January 2021/22 MY, Ukraine exported 2.65 million tons of sunflower oil, which is comparable to the figure for 2020/21 MY and 5% higher than the corresponding figure for 2019/20 MY, when exports reached a record 6. 63 million tons;
- According to the Solvent Extraction Association of India (SEA), India increased its imports of vegetable oils in January compared to December from 1.21 to 1.25 million tons (1.07 million in January 2021). The volume of purchases of palm oil decreased against the backdrop of increasing imports of sunflower oil. Imports of soybean oil remain stable;
- According to the latest information from the Grain Exchange of Buenos Aires, just over 24% of sunflower acreage in Argentina is threshed, which is significantly higher than the figure for the same period last year (16.4%). The average yield is estimated at 2.1 t/ha. At the same time, due to dry weather conditions, the forecasts of gross harvest were reduced by 200 thousand to 3.3 million tons;
According to the February report, recently released by the International Grains Council, global soybean production in 2021/22 MY season will decrease by 15 million to 353 million tons, mainly as a result of a negative revaluation of expected gross yields in South America, influenced by a prolonged drought.
For the first time in 10 years, the decline in gross will also reduce soybean consumption, particularly in Brazil and Argentina, in contrast to the outlook for record consumption in the US. It is expected that the total stocks at the end of the season will decrease sharply and amount to about 43 million tons (-19% compared to the previous season).
At the same time, world trade volumes will remain unchanged and stabilize at about 161 million tons by the end of the season. Moderate to heavy rainfall across the US this week has reduced the impact of the drought, so reduced soybean supplies from South America are likely to be offset by higher US exports.
As a result of the tender held last week, GASC purchased sunflower oil at a price of $104/t below the price of soybean oil, which will become a factor in supporting sunflower oil prices in the future. This has a positive effect on the purchase prices of sunflower. Given that soybean harvest forecasts for the current season continue to decline, soybean oil prices continue to rise, which will also support the sunflower oil market.
According to the results of the last week, Ukrainian-made sunflower oil on FOB basis in the Black Sea ports stabilized in the range of $1390-1410/t, given the relatively low demand.
Prices of soybeans on the domestic market during the reporting week continued to grow against the backdrop of a negative revaluation of future gross harvests of soybeans in South America. On an EXW basis, soybeans were traded in the range of UAH 17,800-18,200/t (+1.1%). On CPT-port terms, oilseeds occupied the price range of UAH 18,300-18,800/t (+1.1%).
In the rapeseed segment, prices were mostly stable last week, holding high positions on both domestic and export bases. So, on FOB terms, they fluctuated in the range of $765-775/t.
o-21.02-eng
