- According to the Institute of Agrarian Economics, the value of exports of seeds and oilseeds from Ukraine in 2021 amounted to $2.4 billion, which is 33% more than in 2020. The main buyers of Ukrainian oilseeds and vegetable oil in 2021, as in previous years, are the countries of Asia and Europe;
- Canada Statistics Service estimated canola seed stocks in Canada at the end of 2021 at 7.56 million tons, which is 43% lower than the previous year and 47.5% lower than the annual average;
- Stocks of palm oil in Malaysia in January decreased to a six-month low – to 1.55 million tons (-3.9% for the month). At the same time, palm oil production in Malaysia in January decreased by 13.5% (to 1.25 million tons), and exports – to 1.16 million (-187%);
- The Brazilian state agency Conab has lowered the forecast for the soybean crop in the country in 2021/22 MY by 15 million to 140.7 million tons. The sharp deterioration in the forecast is associated with a drought that has damaged crops in the southern states. The reduction in soybean production will affect its exports, which are expected to reach 80.1 million tons (versus 86 million last season);
According to the USDA report published last week, the forecast for world production of vegetable oils in 2021/22 MY was again reduced by 0.7 million to 213.2 million tons. At the same time, this figure is still 6.8 million tons higher than the level of 2020/21 MY.
The main negative adjustments related to estimates of soybean oil production (-1 million to 60.3 million tons against 59.2 million tons in 2020/21 MY). The revaluation is based on expectations of a reduction in the soybean crop in South America. At the same time, the forecast for rapeseed oil production was increased by 0.43 million to 28.3 million tons.
American government analysts reduced the estimate of world consumption of vegetable oils by 0.4 million to 210.3 million tons (+5.1 million compared to 2020/21 MY) as a result of the expected decrease in biodiesel consumption and the persistence of high prices for vegetable oils.
They raised their estimate of world ending stocks by 0.3 million to 24.0 million tons due to an increase in palm oil stocks in Indonesia due to export restrictions. As a result, palm and soybean oil stocks are expected to decline in China and India, which could boost demand for cheaper oils.
In addition to the cautious strengthening of the national currency, the growth in prices for raw oil is hampered by a reduction in demand from processors, who expect price cuts on the eve of the start of spring field work.
Despite a significant increase in prices for soybean and palm oil, Ukrainian-made sunflower oil on an FOB basis in the Black Sea ports continued to be traded in the range of $1,420-1,435/t in the reporting period, given the relatively low demand.
Soybean prices on the domestic market, on the contrary, continued to grow during the reporting week amid a negative revaluation of future soybean gross harvests in South America. On an EXW basis, soybeans were traded in the range of UAH 17,600-18,000/t (+2.3%). On the terms of CPT-port, oilseeds occupied the price range of UAH 18,100-18,600/t (+3.4%). Rising prices encourage agricultural producers to intensify sales.
In the rapeseed segment, prices were mostly stable last week, holding high positions on both domestic and export bases. So, on FOB terms, they fluctuated in the range of $765-775/t.
o-14.02-eng
