The area of spring crops in Ukraine is highly dependent on the continuity of seaborne exports, seed supplies and the availability of plant protection products and fertilizers. But previous expectations provided for a transition from corn sowing to more profitable oilseeds.
It is reported by “ProAgro Group” with reference to Bizagro.
The final sowing areas of winter crops in Ukraine for the next year remain unclear, as they will depend on additional factors, in particular the work of the “grain corridor”, the situation in the war zone, the availability of seeds, plant protection products, fertilizers, etc., while market participants suggest that the structure of spring crops in Ukraine may change significantly next year.
According to the latest forecast of the Ukrainian Grain Association, the planted area of corn – the main spring grain crop in Ukraine – may sharply decrease to 3.5 mln ha in 2023/24 MY from 4.6 mln ha this season.
“It’s too early to make an accurate forecast, but the situation with exports, funds and the cost of fertilizers may lead to a decrease in the acreage under corn in Ukraine,” said Sergiy Ivashchenko, executive director of the UGA.
“We will reduce the acreage under corn, as the cost of seeds, protection means, fertilizers, drying and logistics makes corn production unprofitable for us. The unpredictable situation with the grain corridor and the inability to trade forward contracts also increases the risks for corn production,” said Tatiana Alaverdova, Head of Sales at Harveast Holding.
Both market participants and analysts agree that the acreage under sunflower in Ukraine is unlikely to decrease in the next marketing season. The first forecast of the UGA on the areas under sunflower for 2023/24 MY is 4.6 million hectares, which corresponds to the figure of this season. The Association also expects the increase of soybean acreage for next year’s harvest to 1.4 mln ha from 1.2 mln ha in the current season.
The main reason for the increase in the acreage of sunflower and soybeans next season is the good profitability of both crops with the highest ratio of cost and logistics for export. In addition, oilseeds easily find demand in the domestic market, unlike cereals, which have a significant export surplus.
Niche crops – chickpeas, peas, lentils, mustard, etc. – may also face an increase in acreage in Ukraine next year, as farmers may switch to their cultivation in the presence of large stocks of basic crops.
“Our holding already has experience in the production and trade of mustard, lentils, peas, flax, so we are going to increase the sown areas for these crops,” Alaverdova said.
At the same time, it is too early to forecast the final planted areas of spring crops in Ukraine in 2023/24 MY, as the producers are likely to make the choice based on the stocks of different crops they will have before the start of the next year sowing campaign.
