In its updated September forecast of production and balance of major grain crops in the world for 2022/23 MY, the USDA significantly increased the estimate of this year’s wheat and corn harvest in Ukraine, ProAgro Group reported.
In particular, the wheat harvest forecast for our country was increased by 1 million tons compared to the August report – up to 20.5 million tons. However, the forecast of grain exports in the current marketing year was left unchanged by American government analysts – 11 million tons. At the same time, the estimate of domestic consumption of wheat was increased by 0.5 mln tonnes, to 10.7 mln tonnes, and the estimate of grain stocks at the end of 2022/23 MY was increased by almost 470 thsd tonnes, which was announced at the level of 4 711 thsd tonnes.
Moreover, the USDA raised the forecast of the Ukrainian corn harvest by 1.5 mln tonnes, which is currently set at 31.5 mln tonnes. The estimate of grain exports for the current marketing year was also left unchanged – a little more than 5 million tons, while the estimate of domestic consumption was increased by 1 million tons to 12.7 million tons, and the estimate of carry-over stocks, on the contrary, was reduced by 700 thousand tons to 11.4 million tons.
As for Ukrainian barley, the forecasts of the USDA remained almost unchanged: production – 6.4 million tons, export – 1.8 million tons, domestic consumption – 4.2 million tons. At the same time, the estimate of carryover stocks was slightly adjusted – 1 280 thousand tons, which is 14 thousand tons less than forecasted last month.
