The World Trade Organization, in a release last week, noted that after a sharp recovery from the initial shock of the COVID-19 pandemic, global merchandise trade is slowing, while disruptions to production and supply in key sectors are holding back growth, along with a cooling in import demand.
The outlook for global trade continues to be clouded by downside risks: regional disparities, weak trade in services and low vaccination rates, especially in poor countries. COVID-19 continues to pose the greatest threat to trade prospects as new waves of infection could easily disrupt recovery.
- The transshipment of vegetable oils in the seaports of Ukraine in January-October 2021 decreased to 3.944 million tons (-21.4%). All ports have reduced the shipment of oil, except Odessa. Mykolaiv seaport remains the leader in transshipment of processed products. Port enterprises shipped 54.1% of the total transshipment volume;
- According to the experts of the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India (SEA), at the end of 2020/21 MY, India significantly increased the worth of imports of vegetable oils – by 63% per year to $15.71 billion, due to the rise in prices on the world market. In absolute terms, the volume of imports increased slightly – from 13.52 to 13.53 million tons.
- Analyst firm Strategie Grains expects EU farmers to increase rapeseed acreage by 7% for the next harvest, driven by high prices and expected reserves to decline to record lows. According to the first forecast of the company for 2022, the area under rapeseed in EU will increase from 5.23 million hectares up to 5.60 million hectares;
- Egyptian state agency GASC purchased 12 thousand tons of sunflower oil from an external supplier and 8 thousand tons of soybean oil on the domestic market for delivery on January 10-20, 2022. Turkey has also announced a tender for the purchase of 6,000 tons of sunflower oil. The closing date of the tender is November 23.
The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) in a report published last week highlighted the impact of such a factor as high tariffs on container shipping on the growth of world prices for agricultural products. If the current rate of price growth continues, consumer prices are expected to rise by an average of 1.5% by 2023.
According to our price monitoring data, during the reporting period, multidirectional price adjustments were recorded on the domestic markets for key oilseeds and their derivatives.
In the sunflower segment, prices continued to rise during the reporting week. On the EXW basis, sunflower seeds were traded within the range of 18800-19200 (+ 1.6%), while on the CPT enterprise basis – 19100-19500 UAH/t (+ 1.8%).
The price of vegetable oil continues to rise, despite the completion of the harvest campaign and the expectation of a record harvest this year, amid a lack of supply and a rise in the price of palm oil.
Agricultural producers are holding back sales, expecting an increase in sunflower prices and a decrease in transportation costs, which have risen significantly in recent months.
The limited supply of sunflower seeds supports sunflower oil prices. On non-export basis, Ukrainian-made sunflower oil holds high positions – on the FOB basis in the Black Sea ports at the end of the week it was traded in the range of 1420-1435 $/t.
One of the drivers of price growth is the negative revaluation of gross soybean harvest in the United States, as mentioned above, as well as growing expectations for soybean imports by India in 2021/22 MY.
Domestic soybean prices showed limited negative adjustments. On the EXW basis, soybeans were traded in the range of 14800-15200 UAH/t. On CPT port terms, they occupied the price range of 15500-15900 UAH/t (-0.6%).
In the rapeseed segment last week prices were growing on the export basis, which is in line with the global market trends. So, on FOB terms, they fluctuated in the range of 760-775 $/t. Prices on the domestic market also remain high.
o-22.11-eng
