The Ukrainian authorities and Ukrainian business do not believe in the success of Turkey’s negotiations with Russia regarding a quick resumption of grain exports from Ukrainian ports.
This was reported by the ProAgro Group with reference to Forbes.ua.
The publication cites the following arguments.
First, Ukraine has not changed its negotiating demands over the last few days, Ukrainian Foreign Ministry spokesman Oleh Mykolenko said. For example, Ukraine demands that Russia “withdraw its forces from the Ukrainian sea area and provide guarantees of non-aggression against ports and commercial convoys. Publicly, representatives of the Russian Federation did not declare their readiness to make such a concession.
Second, Ukrainian business does not trust Russian assurances of safety for merchant ships that will export Ukrainian grain. The most vivid example is the June 4 missile strike on the Nika-Tera grain terminal in Mykolaiv. At the same time, one of the effective guarantees of non-aggression could be warships of allied countries, such as the United States or Great Britain.
Third, the parties are negotiating to unblock not only the port of Odessa, but also the neighboring ports of Chernomorsk and Yuzhny. The unblocking of the waters of these ports will last at least six weeks. This means that if the ports are unblocked, it will be possible to restore full exports no earlier than August.
Fourthly, unblocking the ports and guaranteeing safety for ships is not enough. We need a mechanism that also guarantees an end to the shelling of fields, elevators, rail and sea terminals.
Fifth, grain owners may face a shortage of ships to transport grain and super-high freight prices. No one knows yet what extra premium rate insurance companies will demand from ship owners for entering Ukrainian ports, which will still be recognized as war zones, and whether “freight” rates will be affordable to domestic exporters.
